Population Projections: Who’s coming?

When thinking about the future, the science (art? mathematics? guesswork?) of population projections can tell us a lot. How many people are likely to live in a particular place? What kind of housing will they occupy? What jobs will they work in? Will they have kids…and what schools are planned?

All these questions (and the associated answers) can help us think about how we join with God in mission in a particular locality.

And there’s a whole bunch of places where we can start looking for the data.  Click through for a few options to pursue when it comes to tracking down population projections for your community.

Local Councils

Many local councils have a very clear picture of what development is likely to occur within their bounds, and who are the likely target market for new residential real estate developers.  Check with your local council’s community development office, or take a look at the website of .id – consultants who produce a lot of LGA based projections and make them publicly available. As of writing Queensland shires including Rockhampton and Cairns (and nearby neighbours in the Tweed) have received the .id treatment – but more shires are likely to appear on the list – so check here from time to time.

Queensland Government Projections

The Queensland Government Statistician produces a vast array of population, demographic and (importantly) projection data. Head here for a full list.  One of the most useful is the Projected population (medium series), by statistical area 2 (SA2), SA3 and SA4, Queensland, 30 June, 2011 to 2031.  This will give you access to population projection data through to 2013 and based on three different categories of geographical area (Statistical Area 2 is the smallest, roughly equating to suburbs) so you can look at projections for just the area you’re after.

Interactive Schools Infrastructure Demand

Education Queensland have produced the excellent Interactive Schools Infrastructure Demand mapping service – a tool that visually represents project population growth of primary and high school aged students in the next 10 and 20 years respectively. For EQ it’s a planning tool to assess the location of schools, but it also provides valuable insights into the likely shifts (both growth and contraction) of family present in every corner of Queensland.  Hit the interactive mapping site here.

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